rouletterummy| Mechanical equipment industry comment: The first bidding for EMU exceeded expectations, focusing on cycle recovery + equipment renewal released demand for rail transportation equipment

Event: on May 10, 2024, the National Railway Group issued a tender announcement for the first EMU this year. The first tender for EMU landed in 2024, 166Rouletterummy.25 groups exceeded expectations. On May 10, the National Railway Group issued a tender notice for the procurement project of the Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU at a speed of 350 kilometers per hour, which is owned by the National Railway Group and Daqin Railway. The procurement contents include: 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (8 marshalling), 132 sets; 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration alpine EMU (8 marshalling), 13 groups; 350 km / h Fuxing intelligent configuration EMU (17 marshalling), 20 groups (10 trains); the total number of standard EMU is 166Rouletterummy.25 groups, which has exceeded the bidding volume of 164 EMU units at 350 km / h in 2023. Railway passenger flow continues to recover, superimposed stock maintenance demand, high-speed rail EMU new construction and maintenance is expected to resonate upward. 1) in the first quarter, railway investment in fixed assets totaled 124.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9 percent over the same period last year, and 1.014 billion passengers were sent, an increase of 28.5 percent over the same period last year. Among them, the cumulative passenger traffic during Spring Festival travel and Qingming Festival short holiday increased by 18.8% and 19.6% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. During the May Day short holiday, the country's railways sent a total of 137 million passengers, + 3% last year, of which the single-day railway passenger volume on May 1 once again set a new record. With a better-than-expected recovery in railway passenger flow, new demand for high-speed EMU is expected to rise. Affected by the epidemic, the purchase of new cars is on the low side due to the downturn in travel in the past three years, and there is a large gap in the number of EMU. It is expected that new mileage and vehicle acquisition will be gradually released in the future. 2772 km of new high-speed rail will be opened to traffic in 23 years, with a total of 45000 km. It is expected that the annual increase will be maintained at about 2500 km from 2024 to 2025. If the current distribution density is maintained, the average annual demand for EMU will exceed 200 sets in the future. 2) there is a demand for renewal and maintenance in the huge stock of railway vehicles, and some models of Harmony have entered the overhaul period for 6 years according to the repair schedule, and the maintenance demand postponed by the epidemic is expected to be released gradually. The first tender for 24-year advanced repair exceeded expectations by 323 columns, including 28 third-level repairs, 93 fourth-level repairs and 202 fifth-level repairs. From the bidding scale of advanced repair of EMU, the maintenance market of advanced repair of EMU has entered a period of high growth ahead of time. The central government promotes large-scale equipment renewal and public transfer railway, and the demand for locomotives and trucks is expected to be released. The life of locomotives is 30 years, but there are still many old locomotives more than 30 years old in actual operation. In December 2023, the State Railway Administration issued measures for the phase-out and renewal of old diesel locomotives, stipulating that old diesel locomotives will withdraw from the transport market from 2035. On February 28 this year, the director of the Railway Bureau said that he would strive to achieve the basic phase-out of old diesel locomotives by 2027 and advance the timetable. On April 12, the Ministry of Transport proposed to speed up the launch of the Action Plan for the Renewal of large-scale Transportation equipment. As of 2023RouletterummyThere are 22400 railway locomotives in China, of which 7800 are diesel locomotives, of which old locomotives account for about half. On February 23, 2024, the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed a large-scale renewal of equipment and a reduction in logistics costs for the whole society, and the mention of public railways is expected to promote the increase of railway freight volume. The successive landing of a series of equipment renewal policies will accelerate the transformation of old diesel locomotives and stimulate the elastic release of locomotive and truck demand. Investment advice:RouletterummyWe believe that under the triple logical deduction of equipment renewal + passenger flow recovery + overhaul cycle, the rail transit industry will usher in a new round of prosperity. According to the pace of bidding in previous years, the National Railway Group will also purchase new cars and advanced repairs for 1-2 EMU in the second half of the year, and there is still an expected gap in railway equipment. CRRC and time Electric will continue to be recommended. Risk hints: the risk that investment in the manufacturing industry is not growing as fast as expected; the risk that economic growth is not as expected; the risk that downstream demand recovery is not as expected; the risk of intensified market competition; the risk that R & D progress is not as expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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