crazyluckcasinonodepositbonus| Manganese prices continue to rise sharply, the market remains bullish

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Zhao Liyun, a reporter from the Securities Times

On May 13, 2409, the main manganese silicon contract on the domestic futures market, broke through the 9000 yuan / ton mark, reaching a maximum of 9148 yuan / ton, which has soared by about 45% in the past month.

On the news side, at the end of April, the GEMCO manganese mine, the main manganese mine owned by South32, the world's largest manganese ore producer, was affected by sudden factors, which may reduce the global manganese ore supply by about 10%. As soon as the news came out, the price of imported manganese ore began to rise, driving downstream prices to rise.

Prices soar to a new high for the year

"recently, the price of imported manganese ore has been rising, and the price has continuously reached a new high for the year in a single month. at the same time, the prices of downstream manganese silicon, ferromanganese and other alloy products have followed the rise, coupled with entering the peak season, the downstream demand has gradually warmed up, further supporting the market price of manganese products." Referring to the factors that stimulate the recent surge in manganese silicon prices, Zhao Lili, an information analyst at Zhuochuang, said.

The import dependence of domestic manganese ore is high, and more than 80% of the raw material manganese ore comes from import. Among them, Australia is the main source of China's manganese ore imports, and more than 70% of the GEMCO manganese mines owned by Australia's largest manganese miner South32 flow to China.

Recently, Australian mining giant South32 announced the suspension of GEMCO operations. After stopping production for a month, it announced that it would continue the suspension until the third quarter of the company's current fiscal year, that is, from January to March 2025. From the point of view of the impact, it may affect about 10% of China's imported manganese ore.

Zhao Lili said that due to the shipping of imported manganese ore, domestic imports of Australian ore may decrease by about 900000 tons in the second quarter. Affected by the low supply, the price of imported manganese ore has soared.

In this context, the number of manganese ore shipped overseas to China is on the low side recently.

By the end of April, South Africa's global shipments in April were 1.53 million tons, 1.03 million tons to China, down 8 percent from the previous month.Crazyluckcasinonodepositbonus.81%; issued by Australia 1Crazyluckcasinonodepositbonus.140000 tons, due to Australian ore shipments, 0 tons to China, down 100% from the previous month; Gabon 637000 tons, about 260000 tons to China, Gabon maintained high shipments, but the quantity shipped to China was on the low side. " Zhao Lili analysis, the current port inventory is at a low level in nearly two years.

As of early May, Tianjin Port imported manganese ore inventory of about 3.6 million tons (including Gabon about 700000 tons, Australia about 695000 tons, South Africa about 630000 tons). Recently, the domestic downstream Si-mn and mn-Fe start to improve, downstream demand improved, and port inventory continued to decline, once again to support the rise in manganese ore prices.

The operating rate is gradually restored.

Driven by the trend of raw material manganese ore and coke and futures, the spot price of manganese silicon has also warmed up recently.

"since April, the decline in manganese-silicon alloy has gradually stopped, starting from 5800 yuan / ton to the latest market price approaching 8500 yuan / ton on May 13, with a cumulative increase of about 46.5%. At the same time, the futures market also started from the bottom to the highest of 9100 yuan / ton on May 13, with a cumulative increase of 50.4%." Zha Zuodong, chief analyst of the ferroalloy division of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, said that at present, profits at the production side have been restored, and more enterprises can make a profit of more than 1,000 yuan per ton if they use early low-cost resources, but according to today's mining prices, the northern region will make a profit of about 6%. The profit per ton is about 600 yuan, while in the south, the profit is about 100 yuan due to the high electricity charges.

Zhuochuang data also showed that as of May 11, 6517 manganese silicon in the north was 7400 won / ton, while the southern price was 7500 Mel / t, up 32.17% from the previous month and 10.95% from the same period last year. However, some enterprises said that in terms of cost, manufacturers are still facing a loss situation. At present, most manufacturers choose disk operation, the overall loss is relatively moderate, and some manufacturers who stop production in the early stage also have a plan to resume production after the cost is stable. Take the northern silicon and manganese manufacturers as an example, the operating rate increased by 3 percentage points month-on-month.

Will the recent increase in the price of raw material manganese products have a significant impact on the price of downstream steel?

According to Zhao Lili's analysis, the price of manganese ore has risen by 1 yuan per ton, while the price of manganese silicon has increased by about 60 million yuan per ton. At present, the amount of manganese silicon used in per ton of steel is about 15 kilograms, and the price of manganese silicon has increased by 1000 yuan per ton, and the cost of steel may rise by 30 yuan per ton. So, the current Si-mn price is 1800 Mel 1900 yuan / ton higher than the previous month, which has an impact on steel cost or 28.5 Mel 57 yuan / ton, so it has little impact on steel prices.

"the rise in the price of manganese and silicon has a direct impact on the cost of steel production in downstream steel mills. If the price of manganese-silicon alloy rises by 1000 yuan, the cost of rebar will rise by 24 yuan. ItsCrazyluckcasinonodepositbonusAlthough the consumption of manganese silicon of other plate steels is low, there is a slight increase in cost. " Cha Zuodong said.

The market is still bullish

"in the later stage, if the downstream demand of manganese and silicon continues to pick up, coupled with the high cost operation, the price of manganese and silicon may continue to rise." Zhao Lili mentioned in the interview that, on the whole, the manganese ore market has been operating strongly recently, supported by many positive factors, and the manganese ore price is strongly related to the manganese silicon disk.

Manganese ore prices have risen significantly recently, due to a temporary shortage of imported manganese ore caused by some short-term events.

In addition to the suspension of GEMCO operations announced by Australian mining giant South32, the derailment occurred in Gabon, the world's second largest manganese mining country, on April 26th, damaging nearly 300m of tracks and derailment of 26 empty cars, which may take about two weeks to a month to repair. The monthly shipment of manganese ore from Gabon is more than 500000 tons, of which about 40% is sent to China. Under the circumstances that the supply gap of South32 manganese ore has existed for a long time, if the repair time of Jiapeng transport railway is too long, it may cause further shortage of manganese ore supply.

Zhao Lili believes that manganese products need to pay close attention to the demand of downstream steel mills and other factors while supporting the improvement of raw materials. At present, the bidding of downstream steel mills, the national policy and the situation of domestic manganese ore will have a certain impact on the manganese city.

Zha Zuodong also believes that the strong price of manganese and silicon is mainly due to the increase in the cost of manganese ore, and the market holders are optimistic about the price of manganese ore and hesitate to sell it at a low price, which makes it difficult for manganese and silicon production enterprises to grasp the long-term production cost and also cherish the sale of low-price spot resources. leading to the reduction of market circulation resources. Short-term driven by the futures market, the spot still has impulse energy. In the later stage, the core of the market focuses on the Australian port maintenance period and shipping remedial measures, but at present, due to other factors, the maintenance progress is slow.

According to Mysteel satellite data tracking, based on the overall shipment volume in 2023, Australia sent a total of 7.44 million tons throughout the year, and Groot Island sent 5.45 million tons globally. Groot Island accounted for about 73% of Australia's total. The port will arrive at 4.18 million tons in China in 2023, accounting for 76.7% of the port's volume. Based on this calculation, the average daily shipment volume of Groot Island is 11,500 tons. If there is no shipment in 2024, it will affect China's arrival volume ranging from 2.8 million to 3 million tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imported manganese ore. The spot inventory of China's Australian mines is around 1 million tons. If imports are missing in the later period, port inventories will drop to zero after mid-July.

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