freespincoinmaster| Everbright Futures: May 14 Nonferrous Metals Daily

CopperFreespincoinmaster:

The price of copper fluctuated higher overnight. On the macro front, the Fed survey shows a significant rise in consumer inflation expectationsFreespincoinmasterDomestically, the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds has helped to boost market sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, domestic TC prices fell to negative, indicating the current tension in the copper concentrate market, which also deepened concerns about the supply side, but actual output may be higher than expected in the second quarter with sufficient crude copper and anode plates. Under the expectation of internal and external long-term bond issuance, the macro-maintenance of the optimistic market atmosphere, paying attention to the changes in fundamentals in May, and the continued deviation between expectations and reality will also restrict the upward space for copper prices.

Nickel & stainless steel:

Overnight LME Nickel rose 0.Freespincoinmaster.39%, Shanghai Nickel rose 0%Freespincoinmaster.95%. On the inventory side, LME nickel stocks increased by 180 tons to 80466 tons yesterday, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 884 tons to 20709 tons. From the point of view of the discount, the LME0-March discount remained negative, while the imported nickel discount remained at-350 yuan / ton. In terms of stainless steel, the domestic benchmark price of Indonesian nickel mine rose at the cost end, while the performance of nickel and iron prices was strong. Last week, affected by festivals and shipments, inventory levels increased slightly. In May, crude stainless steel production was 3.3403 million tons, an increase of 3.7% month-on-month. In terms of the new energy industry chain, the growth rate of intermediate imports accelerated, the three-way scheduling slowed down in May, and the demand for nickel sulfate may be weaker, but the cost side is still running strongly for the time being. Under the influence of the macro environment and Russian nickel events superimposed by contradictions in some parts of the industrial chain, nickel prices will still be high.

Alumina & electrolytic aluminum:

Overnight alumina shock is strong, overnight AO2406 closed at 3739 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.03%, positions increased by 753 to 37196 hands. Shanghai aluminum shock is strong, overnight AL2406 closed at 20655 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.85%. Reduce positions by 246 hands and 166500 hands. Spot aspect, SMM alumina comprehensive price continues to rise to 3691 yuan / ton. Spot aluminum ingot discount to 50 yuan / ton, Foshan A00 quoted discount up to 20400 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 quoted discount 40 yuan / ton, downstream aluminum bar processing fees Linyi, Henan stable, Wuxi Xinjiang Guangdong Baotou Nanchang 70-160 yuan / ton; aluminum rod 1A60 stable, 6top 8 series processing fees down 146yuan / ton; aluminum alloy ADC12 and A380 down 50,100yuan / ton, A356 and ZLD102/104 down 100yuan / ton. The positive space of alumina period is still there, but with the backlog of warehouses, the range of spot discount converges faster, and it is expected that the spot spot will catch up with the uplink and futures shock adjustment in the short term. Under the Southwest Electrolytic Aluminum resuming production and accelerating stock preparation demand, there is still upward power in the follow-up of the market. The high price of electrolytic aluminum suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm and start-up performance, which forms a certain pressure on the rhythm of removing storage. However, there is little contradiction in the fundamentals, and the state has once again put forward policies such as stimulating consumption and lifting multi-land purchase restrictions and promoting the real estate market, and macro sentiment once again gives aluminum prices an upward boost. We maintain that double aluminum is easy to rise, difficult to fall, and strong shock. Continue to pay attention to alumina positive sleeve space and variety price difference space.

Tin:

The turnover of 5x13 Indonesian JFX is 100t, the turnover of 5x6 Indonesian ICDX is 50t, and the cumulative turnover of the two major exchanges in May is 700t. The main force of Shanghai tin rose 3.41% to 270780 yuan / ton, and the tin futures warehouse receipt was 16918 tons, an increase of 691 tons over the previous day. LMEE tin rose 2.34% to US $32855 / ton, while tin inventory decreased by 40 tons to 4760 tons. Spot market, for 2406, Yunxi Shengshui 200,500 yuan / ton, Yunzi discount 0500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500,700 yuan / ton. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-810 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread-650 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 8.24. The inventory in the domestic society is still accumulating, the inventory is tired to a very high level, but the storage speed has not eased, and the hidden inventory in the industrial chain is almost obvious. However, over the past month, due to the sharp slowdown in the recovery and removal of Indonesian exports, although the rise in overseas spot water is still high, it also shows that overseas consumption is not as good as previously expected. And the output data investigated by the domestic tripartite institutions are approaching the high levels in recent years, so we need to wait for the customs to announce the imported ore volume in April before it can be logically verified. In the short term, there are signs of microcosmic deterioration, and prices may fluctuate in a high and wide range. Focus on the delivery of LME05 contracts tomorrow.

Zinc:

As of Monday, SMM zinc ingot stocks totaled 214600 tons, down 1700 tons from May 6 and up 1700 tons from May 9. The main force of zinc in Shanghai rose 2.16% to 23930 yuan / ton, and zinc futures warehouse receipts were 78003 tons, an increase of 1178 tons over the previous day. LME zinc rose 1.78 per cent to US $2997.5 / tonne, while zinc stocks decreased by 550t to 251400 tonnes. In the spot market, the discount of 60-80 yuan / ton for Shanghai zinc to 2406 contract and 0-10 yuan / ton for average price; 80-90 yuan / ton for Guangdong zinc to Shanghai zinc 2406 contract, which is the same as that of Shanghai market; and the discount of Tianjin zinc to 2406 contract is around 70-80 yuan / ton, and the price of Tianjin is 10 yuan / ton higher than that of Shanghai. In terms of price difference, 06-07 spread-100 yuan / ton, 07-08 spread + 5 yuan / ton, Shanghai-Lun ratio 7.98. Domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, while demand overseas performance is sluggish, the latest domestic social finance data feedback real estate and infrastructure demand performance is poor. Zinc as a whole is in a surplus pattern, the upward power is insufficient, the upper pressure level pays attention to 24000 yuan / ton, and zinc is expected to show a higher probability of concussion in the short term.

Industrial silicon:

On the 13th, the industrial silicon shock was weak, with the main force 2406 closing at 11990 yuan / ton, down 0.12% on the day. Positions were reduced by 9771 hands to 77300 hands. Spot continued to stabilize, Baichuan reference price of 13362 yuan / ton, stable compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the price range of # 553 is stable at 12800-13500 yuan / ton, and the price range of # 421 is stable at 13550-14050 yuan / ton. The lowest delivery price is 11750 yuan / ton, and the spot discount is up to 155yuan / ton. Silicon factories try to sell goods at a higher price after the festival, and the mood of receiving goods downstream is better than that before the festival, but it is relatively limited, and the overall tendency is higher than that of low grade. As the 06 contract is coming to an end, the funds have the intention of avoiding risks and leaving the market, and the sentiment of buying up or down downstream is dominant, which is expected to lead to a short-term rebound in futures prices. However, there is still no bright spot in the current demand, the southwest region once again shows the intention to resume production, the fundamentals are expected to continue to be weak, it is difficult to support a sustained rise in the market, and the possibility of a subsequent return to weak shocks is even higher. Investors are advised to manage their positions well. the demand for changing positions can be carried out in advance.

Lithium carbonate:

Lithium carbonate futures 2407 contract fell 2.15% to about 107000 yuan / ton yesterday. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1350 yuan / ton to 109800 yuan / ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1900 yuan / ton to 106800 yuan / ton, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell by 550 yuan / ton to 99500 yuan / ton. the basis difference is about 2650 yuan / ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts increased by 179t to 23303 tonnes yesterday. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 14.7% month-on-month to 60700 tons in May, while Chilean customs data show that Chile exported about 22900 tons of lithium carbonate to China in April, a month-on-month comparison of 42.27% and 162.25% compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, the total demand in the lower reaches of May is still slightly higher than that expected in April, but the previous price is relatively low, there is some replenishment in the lower reaches, the proportion of customers and supplies is rising, and the purchasing willingness of some positive manufacturers is also weakened. the terminal is expected to be encouraged by the trade-in policy. Environmental protection issues have aroused renewed concern, the cost of extracting lithium from mica is expected to increase, auction prices and lithium ore prices are still slightly supported, but overseas mineral prices have declined slightly, while the overall spot supply tends to be loose, warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory continue to increase, without a strong driver, prices may be less volatile.

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