crashhugeadventure| Shenyin Wanguo Futures Analysis: There is limited space above the dual focus price, focusing on production capacity release and inventory accumulation

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[Coke market adjustment pressure increasescrashhugeadventure, price upside is limited]

The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, and the recovery of coke profits drove production back to warm up. Coking coal production has increased slightly recently, the reduction of market inventories has slowed down, and the policy environment has been relaxed. It is expected that coking coal production will accelerate in the future. At the same time, in the context of profit recovery, coke output continued to rise, and coking plant inventories remained low. The market paid attention to the accumulation of inventories of key companies.

As the output of molten iron has rebounded, given that it is still at a historically low level, coupled with the gradual entry of terminal steel demand into the off-season, the profit level of steel mills is low, and there is doubt about the room for further improvement of molten iron output. Therefore, steel mills may release demand for replenishment slowly.

Comprehensive analysis shows that due to the impact of the off-season on terminal steel demand, the space for further growth of molten iron output is limited. In this context, the price of bifocals is facing greater adjustment pressure, and the market expects limited room for price upside. Investors need to pay close attention to the release of dual coke production capacity and changes in inventories. The expected fluctuation range for JM2409 is 1500 to 1800, and the fluctuation range for J2409 is 2050 to 2350.

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