froggernintendoswitch| The U.S. harvest season is approaching, and soybeans may sell off after entering June

Huitong Financial APP News-Market analyst Thomas Weatwater wrote thatfroggernintendoswitchDespite the rise in soybean prices, seasonal trends suggest that soybeans may sell off as the U.S. harvest season approaches.

The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in May showed that U.S. soybean supply and ending stocks will increase in 2024/25 compared with 2023/24.

May WASDE is expected to be 44froggernintendoswitch.50 million bushels, an increase of 285 million bushels from the same period last year. Total U.S. oilseed production is expected to be 131.2 million tons, an increase of 8.9 million tons from 2023/24. Despite Argentina's difficulties, WASDE expects Argentina's soybean production to be 51 million tons. Brazil's CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) will expire on June 13.

Due to heavy rains in Argentina and Brazil, these numbers are likely to drop in the June WASDE, which is scheduled to be released on June 12. Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's main crop-producing area, and crops in the area have been damaged by excessive rainfall.

A seasonal analysis of soybean futures prices since 1995 shows that prices began to fall in May, followed by an accelerated sell-off in June, with an average decline of 3.7% in June since 1995. Subsequently, it fell by an average of 1% in July and rebounded moderately by 0.5% in August. Then fell again in September.

Generally, soybeans are harvested in May in the southern hemisphere and in November in the northern hemisphere. Considering that harvests were delayed in the south due to weather, this explains the rise in soybean prices.

"Now, the focus is turning to northern soybeans, and if the June WASDE report maintains strong production, it could push prices down, consistent with the seasonal trends we have seen over the past three decades," Weatwater said. As soybean trading approaches its highest level since January, we may see some profit-taking as we enter June."

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