zyngacrypto|华新水泥(600801)：国内水泥低迷是核心拖累

Event description Company Quarterly report 2024ZyngacryptoOperating income is about 70Zyngacrypto. 8.4 billion yuanZyngacrypto, a year-on-year increase of 6.Zyngacrypto.87%; the attributable net profit was about 177 million yuan, a decrease of 28.43% over the same period last year. Event comment 2024Q1: demand is relatively low, and the company's market is no exception. 2024Q1 industry-wide cement demand is relatively low, real estate and infrastructure are weakening operation. In the first quarter of 2024, due to the impact of fewer new real estate projects and the suspension of major infrastructure projects in some areas, the national cement market demand was low, and the cumulative cement production decreased by 11.8% compared with the same period last year, which was the second lowest since 2011 and only higher than the level of the same period in 2020. In terms of the company's core market, in Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan and Guizhou, the growth rate of 2024Q1 cement demand is-19%,-7%,-3% and-14%, respectively. Based on this, we expect the company's 24Q1 domestic cement production and sales to decline to a certain extent. In addition, prices and tonne gross margins are expected to fall to varying degrees, taking into account weak demand. However, we judge that the overseas and aggregate business is expected to grow to some extent. In 2023, overseas revenue reached 5.49 billion yuan, an increase of about 30% over the same period last year. In 2023, the company added a total of 8.54 million tons / year of production capacity, which is expected to release further increments in 2024Q1. The same is true of aggregates, and the expansion of new capacity is expected to provide an increase in the company's 24Q1 performance. Therefore, from the overall operational level, we expect domestic cement to be the core drag, while overseas cement and aggregate performance is OK. Net profit increased slightly, but net profit attributable to it declined. Furthermore, the sales, management, R & D and financial expenses of 2024Q1 increased by 0.24,0.63,0.22 and 113 million yuan respectively, and the total cost increased by 230 million yuan, which is mainly due to the increase in expenses brought about by new business and new market development. In addition, the company's 24Q1 net profit was 292 million yuan, a slight increase over the same period last year, including 115 million profit and loss for minority shareholders, an increase of nearly 80 million yuan over the same period last year, which is speculated to be mainly due to the impact of the proportion of rights and interests in overseas projects. The final net profit attributed to 24Q1 was 177 million yuan, down 28.43% from the same period last year, or about 70 million yuan. Overseas: the African market continues to expand and expand. By the end of 2023, the company's overseas effective cement grinding capacity has reached 20.91 million tons / year. At present, the company has layout in 11 countries, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cambodia, Nepal, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, South Africa, Mozambique and Oman, and has become a leader in the cement market in Central Asia. Steady strategic expansion: 1) continued overseas distribution, especially in Africa, where the high boom is expected to significantly improve the company's overall earnings. 2) the aggregate continues to enter the harvest period, and it is expected that with the gradual improvement of resources, the aggregate cost still has room to decrease. 3) domestic cement cost leads peer optimization. The cumulative use of alternative fuels in 2023 was 4.37 million tons, an increase of 500000 tons over the previous year, and the group's combined calorific value substitution rate reached 20 percent, an increase of 6 percentage points over 2022. It is expected that the performance in 2024-2025 will be 30 or 3.6 billion yuan, corresponding to 10 or 8 times of PE, with a buy rating. Risk tips: 1, the recovery of demand is not as expected; 2, the progress of extension such as aggregate is slow. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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