arcadeproject| Big coffee chat sugar market: Foreign sugar tested again for 18 cents, and domestic sugar prices fell sharply again

Yangcheng on the sword of agricultural products

After the main sugar fell below 19 cents / lb on April 25, the price began to rebound and rebounded to 20 cents / lb on May 7. However, due to higher-than-expected sugar production in Thailand and India, prices fell again, falling below 19 cents / lb at 18 on the 13th.Arcadeproject.62 cents per pound.

Up to now, the northern hemisphere pressing season is basically over. The sugar production of India, Thailand and China tends to be clear in 2023 / 24. China produces 10 million tons of sugar vegetables, an increase of 1.05 million tons over the previous squeezing season. India is expected to eventually reduce production slightly, with an output of about 31.5 million tons. however, compared with the estimated output of less than 30 million tons in the fourth quarter and the beginning of the first quarter of last year, it was significantly increased. Thailand's sugar production also increased by nearly 1 million tons compared with the estimated output in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of last year.

The production of the crushing season in the northern hemisphere is coming to an end, and the new crushing season in Brazil in the southern hemisphere begins on April 1. The output of sugarcane and sugar in south-central Brazil has not yet been announced in April. The sugar cane intake in central and southern Brazil in early April was 15.81 million tons, higher than 13.61 million tons in the same period in 2023, with a sugar yield of 710000 tons, higher than 540000 tons in the same period in 2023. The sugarcane ATR in 2024 was 107.93 by the beginning of April, slightly lower than 108.35 in the same period in 2023. The proportion of sugarcane sugar production in the first ten days of April was 43.64%, much higher than 38.5% in the same period in 2023. Brazilian sugar mills take the initiative to sell long-term sugar and need to produce more sugar to meet delivery. In addition, although the price of raw sugar is lower, sugar production is more profitable than fuel ethanol, which is the main reason why sugar mills are willing to produce more sugar. Although the data of sugarcane and sugar production in April in central and southern China have not yet been released, combined with the weather and other factors, sugar output in April is significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and the proportion of sugarcane sugar production also remains high.

At present, the northern hemisphere is at the end of the 24th squeeze season of 2023par, as well as the seedling stage of sugarcane. The weather shows that the monsoon rain in India this year is earlier than that in last year, and the main sugarcane producing areas in Thailand have had good rainfall since April. In the same period last year, India is still facing less rain and drought in the sugarcane area of Thailand. The good weather at the seedling stage is conducive to improving the potential of sugarcane yield this year.

In addition, even though India suffered a severe drought during the 2023 and 24 squeezing season, the sugar production did not decline significantly, which also shows thatArcadeprojectThe area of sugarcane in India has increased a lot during the 2023x24 crushing season, and these sugarcane as persistent roots have ensured the area of sugarcane in India this year. In China, the sown area of sugarbeet in the north increased, the area of sugarcane in the south increased steadily in Guangxi, and there was good weather in the seedling stage. at the beginning of May, the number of sugarcane seedlings in other sugarcane areas except Yunnan increased compared with the same period last year, and the seedling height was also higher than that of last year.

The output of sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is higher than expected during the 2023x24 crushing season, and India may face re-export of sugar. The price of raw sugar is close to 18 cents / lb. at 18 cents / lb, the dutiable cost of import and processing of 18 cents of raw sugar is 6250-6300 yuan / ton. this price is lower than the current spot price in East China and North China. The price window of raw sugar outside the quota is about to open, and the price of raw sugar may become the ceiling of domestic sugar prices in the next six months.

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