scratchthecat| Huatai Securities: The upward trend of pig prices has strengthened, and CPI pressure is expected to rise
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Huatai Securities Research news pointed outscratchthecat, pork prices have increased significantlyscratchthecat, may push the consumer price index (CPI) higher.
According to news on May 21, Huatai Securities 'latest research report shows that pork prices have shown an upward trend recently. From 14 per kilogram before May Dayscratchthecat.8 yuan, increased to 15 per kilogram on May 17scratchthecat.4 yuan. During the weekend, pork prices accelerated, with the average price of live pigs rising by about 0.38 yuan per kilogram. As of May 19, the national average price of live pigs had reached 15.8 yuan per kilogram. Pig prices in some areas even exceeded 16 yuan per kilogram.
The research report further analyzed that the strategy of suppressing hurdles and secondary fattening in the short term may form strong support for the market. In the medium term, tight supply and demand may cause pork prices to maintain an upward trend. The year-on-year increase in CPI widened in April, and the contribution of pork prices turned from negative to positive, which indicates that pork prices may continue to maintain year-on-year growth in the following months, thus having a continued positive impact on CPI.
Based on forecasts for monthly pig prices in 2024, the peak may be between 18 yuan and 20 yuan per kilogram, and the increase in pork prices may increase CPI by 0.75% to 1.1%.
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