starzmegawaysslot| The United Nations raises global economic growth and calls for vigilance against these risks

The United Nations' forecast for the global economy in 2024 is lower than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The United Nations raises its latest economic outlook.StarzmegawaysslotForecasts for the global economy.

RecentlyStarzmegawaysslotThe United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the mid-year update report on the World Economic situation and prospects for 2024, which was cautiously optimistic about the prospects for world economic growth, and raised the forecast for world economic growth in 2024 from the forecast at the beginning of the year.Starzmegawaysslot.4% up to 2Starzmegawaysslot7%, and the growth rate is expected to be 2.8% in 2025. However, this forecast is still below the global economic growth rate of 3% in 2019 before the outbreak.

"our forecasts are cautiously optimistic, but there are also important warnings," Shantanu Mukherjee, director of the United Nations Office for Economic Analysis and Policy, said at a news conference.

The report believes that inflation, slowing investment, persistent geo-tensions, climate change and other factors remain the main challenges for the global economy to maintain rapid growth. Technological changes such as machine learning and artificial intelligence not only improve productivity, but also aggravate the risk of technological divide.

The outlook for the global economy has improved

The report predicts that developed economies will grow by 1.6 per cent in 2024, up from 1.3 per cent forecast at the beginning of the year; developing economies will grow by 4.1 per cent, slightly higher than the 4.0 per cent forecast at the beginning of the year; and the least developed economies will grow by 4.8 per cent, slightly lower than the 5.0 per cent forecast at the beginning of the year.

As far as specific countries and regions are concerned, the report believes that despite high interest rates and repeated delays in the process of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US economy has maintained a remarkable momentum of growth. The latest forecasts show that the US economy will grow by 2.3 per cent in 2024, up from 1.4 per cent forecast at the beginning of the year.

The report also raised China's economic growth rate to 4.8% from the previous forecast of 4.7%. "loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy are expected to support economic output in the short term." "in the long run, increased policy support is expected to boost investment in manufacturing, especially in emerging industries," the report wrote. "

The report also predicts that India will become one of the fastest-growing major economies in emerging markets. The report raised India's economic growth from 6.2 per cent to 6.9 per cent in 2024, citing solid public investment and strong private consumption.

However, the report lowered the EU's economic growth. The report argues that geopolitical tensions, weak economic sentiment and the end of financial support have hindered the EU's economic recovery. In 2024, the EU's economic growth forecast was slightly lowered to 1.0 per cent.

It is worth noting that the United Nations' forecast for the global economy in 2024 is lower than that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In mid-April, IMF's latest forecasts show that the global economy will continue to grow at a rate of 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, the same rate as in 2023. In early May, OECD forecast growth of 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025.

Be on guard against these risks

While bullish on global economic growth, Mr Mukherjee said that while global inflation had fallen from its peak in 2023, it was "a deeply fragile external performance of the global economy" and "a cause for concern".

"We have seen that inflation remains high in some countries. Globally, energy and food prices have risen slightly in recent months, but what is more hidden is that inflation in many developed countries has remained above the 2 per cent central bank target. " Mukherjee said.

In addition, global investment has continued to decline since 2021, according to the report. In terms of the proportion of fixed asset investment, the growth rate in 2023 is only 2.8%. The figure for developing economies fell from 5.1 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent last year. The report argues that high interest rates, tight fiscal space and geopolitical risks have all undermined investment growth.

For Africa, which enjoys a demographic dividend, the report predicts that Africa's economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year, down from 3.5 per cent at the beginning of the year. Among them, the outlook for large African economies, represented by Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, is weak, with seven African countries in a "debt dilemma" and more than a dozen other countries in a "high-risk debt dilemma".

Mr Mukherjee said the decline in economic forecasts in Africa was "particularly worrying because about 430 million people in Africa live in extreme poverty, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the global malnourished population. In our latest report, 2/3 of countries with high inflation are also in Africa".

In addition, the report stresses that key minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper play a vital role in countries' transition to clean energy under the current emphasis on carbon neutralization. However, countries with these resources need sensible policies and effective implementation capacity to benefit from them and break the resource curse. "International cooperation is essential to promote technology transfer and financing to developing countries, to combat illicit financial flows, and to ensure the supply of key minerals needed for green transformation."

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